Joe Biden’s Prediction on Jakarta Sinking in 10 years

Joe Biden made a statement about Jakarta Sinking in 10 years due to climate change in his welcoming speech on climate change at the office of the US Director of National Intelligence in July 27, 2021. “But what happens — what happens in Indonesia if the projections are correct that, in the next 10 years, they may have to move their capital because they’re going to be underwater?” Biden said, as quoted from the official White House website of whitehouse.gov on Friday (30/7/2021).

Long before NASA’s prediction, national institutions such as the geodetic research teams of Bandung Technical Institute (ITB) and the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (Lembaga Ilmu Pengetahuan Indonesia - LIPI) conducted research on land subsidence and sea level rise in Jakarta. These research institutions concluded that if no countermeasures are taken, it is not impossible that 95 percent of Jakarta's area will be submerged in 2050.

Meanwhile, Gills Erkens (a researcher from Deltares Research Institute in Utrecht, Netherlands) reported in 2014 by BBC that several cities in Southeast Asia are in risk of sinking if no precautions are taken. Jakarta, Ho Chi Minh City, Bangkok, and other coastal cities are experiencing land subsidence and sea level rise which caused the sinking. He cited Tokyo and Venesia as two example cities that successfully stop land subsidence.

In regards to this issue, Yayat Supriatna (an urban observer and lecturer of Planning Engineering in Faculty of Landscape Architecture and Environmental Technology, Trisakti University) commented that the potential for Jakarta to sink is not only triggered by sea level rise due to global warming. The sinking potential is also exacerbated by land subsidence due to massive groundwater exploitation. This due to the capacity of regional water companies in Jakarta at this moment unable to provide adequate water supply services for the public. Therefore, when a large-scale investment such as hotel industry, offices, and shopping areas are built and their demands on large amount of water supply are impossible to be covered then they take a shortcut by extracting groundwater.

According to Yayat, immediate action on stopping massive groundwater exploitation is essential to safe Jakarta from sinking, while construction of a giant embankment is considered as an ineffective effort. Additionally, groundwater exploitation causes an extensive seawater intrusion which already reached the Monas area in central Jakarta. Another possible countermeasure is by redistributing the city functions such as offices, shopping centres, hotels, and large-scale industries to the surrounding cities

Meanwhile, Prof. Robert M. Delinom (hydrogeology expert from LIPI) argued that Jakarta would not sink since the geology of Jakarta mainland is inhomogeneous. Only certain locations which composed of clay material shrink naturally due to massive development. Hence, he recommended the government to establish a development zoning, where areas composed of fine rocks and clay such as in North Jakarta and West Jakarta should not be developed massively.

According to Dr. Heri Andreas (Head of Geodesy Laboratory, Department of Geodesy and Geomatics Engineering, ITB and Head of Alumni Association Research Institute, ITB (IA-ITB)), previous researches reported that the land subsidence rate in Jakarta is decelerating. According to Dr. Heri, the prediction of Jakarta sinking in 10 years is not a certain future. Since he is sure that intervention efforts will be carried out to prevent the sinking, such as construction of coastal embankments, reduction of land subsidence rate by substituting groundwater with alternative water sources (pipelines), and coastal management.

Dr. Heri also revealed that Pekalongan, Semarang, and Demak City experiencing severe land subsidence with an alarming rate. The IA-ITB Research Institute is currently prioritizing their research in these cities. "The areas in these cities which located underwater are wider than Jakarta. If a proper risk management effort is not conducted, the possibility of sinking in 10 year will be more certain than Jakarta," he explained.

Further, Deputy Governor of DKI Jakarta, Ahmad Riza Patria, disagreed with Biden's prediction. He admitted that the ground elevation in Jakarta is decreasing every year, but denied the threat that the capital will sink in the next 10 years. The Government of DKI Jakarta has taken various actions to prevent the sinking. One of them is coordinating with the Ministry of Public Works and Housing (PUPR) and other related institution to mitigate the land subsidence and flood, and construction of the Giant Sea Wall. Further, PAM Jaya pipelines are also improved thus clean water demand can be provided in order to reduce groundwater extraction. The government also continues to prevent tidal flooding in North Jakarta and to encourage public to avoid littering. The Deputy Governor respected Biden's statement regarding the threat of Jakarta sinking in the next 10 years, yet he emphasized that the government would not allow such threat to occur.

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